ISSN: 2279-9559 (dal n. 1 al n. 157), 2279-9567 (dal n. 158 al n. 363), 2279-9575 (dal n. 364 in poi)
Paper nr. 465
Title: ECONOMIC GROWTH, SCIENTIFIC PROGRESS AND THE LIFE EXPECTANCY INCREASE
Authors: Massimo Tamberi
This paper is about the evidence of the long run increase of life expectancy, and its relationship i with the process of economic growth. The spirit in mainly empiric, but part of the empirical analysis is based on a simple model. The analysis proceeds through several steps, providing different new results, two of which are worth highlighting. First, it is considered an implicit elasticity of life expectancy to income “at the frontier”; this long-term elasticity is necessarily decreasing and a measure is provided, suggesting that it may represent a decrease in the incentive for economic growth. Second, through econometric estimations, the impact of the determinants of life expectancy is provided, distinguishing between “transitional” and “permanent” determinants. The latter is identified by scientific advancements (in medicine-related fields), and the result suggests their impact on life expectancy still appears sustained and not diminishing.
Title: The Coevolution of Policy Support and Farmers’ Behaviour. An investigation on Italian agriculture over the 2008-2019 period.
Authors: Roberto Esposti
This paper investigates the coevolution of the CAP expenditure and of the farms’ performance and choices to assess whether and to what extent CAP itself satisfies the fundamental requisites of Causal Inference. In order to identify some regularities in this coevolution, the analysis is performed on a constant group of professional and representative farms over a long enough time period. The Italian 2008-2019 FADN balanced sample is here considered. Results question whether CAP expenditure is actually accompanied by any significant farmers’ response. An exception may actually concern the support specifically focused on environmental standards. Methodological implications about the applicability of Program Evaluation Methods to CAP assessment are drawn.
Title: Depopulation in the Apennines in the 20th century: an empirical investigation
Authors: Riccardo Lucchetti, Gabriele Morettini
We propose an empirical investigation of the population dynamics between 1931 and 2011 in a mountain area in central Italy. The main novelty of our work is the usage of sub-municipal data, which makes it possible to disentangle several drivers of the overall depopulation trend. All these factors had been considered previously by separate strands of literature, but never jointly, as we do. One of our most interesting results is that different factors operate in different historical periods. Therefore, we use a flexible statistical strategy by which we divide the sample in four different 20-year spans and adopt a different statistical model for each. Another notable result is that an appropriate quantitative description of the phenomenon must take into account the disappearance of inhabited centres separately from their size in terms on inhabitants.
In order to implement “place-based” policies in remote mountain areas, the most meaningful unit to consider as the foundation of social interactions is sub-municipal. Moreover, the concept of community is crucial for a systematic understanding of population change and related policy actions.
Title: AI Patenting and Employment: Evidence from the Worlds’ Top R&D Investors
Authors: Alessandro Sterlacchini
This paper considers 35 corporations which are among the biggest world’s R&D investors and account for more than two thirds of AI patents worldwide.
Their post-patenting performance is examined by focusing on employment changes and by comparing them with the outcomes of similar companies, operating in the same sectors and recording high levels of R&D expenditures as well, but not involved in AI patenting to a significant extent. The main finding is that substantial employment benefits for investing in AI inventions arise for the companies belonging to IT services, while in Computers & electronics and Automobiles the same investment is associated with employment reduction.
JEL Codes: O31, O33, J23
Keywords: Artificial intelligence, Patents, Employment changes, Large corporations
This article investigates the risk-return relationship of managed portfolios when two risk indicators, the Tracking Error Volatility (TEV) and the Value-at-Risk (VaR), are both constrained not to exceed pre-set maximum values. While in some cases these constraints may not be mutually compatible, it is often possible to find portfolios that satisfy both constraints. In this paper, we analyze the problem of choosing among these.
Focusing on the trade-off between the joint restrictions that can be imposed on both risk indicators, we de^Lne the Risk Balancing Frontier (RBF), a new portfolio boundary in the traditional absolute risk-total return space, that contains all the portfolios characterized by the minimum VaR attainable for each TEV level. We show that the RBF is the set of all tangency portfolios between two well-known frontiers: the so-called Constrained Tracking Error Volatility Frontier (Jorion, 2003) and the Constrained Value-at-Risk Frontier (Alexander and Baptista, 2008). Thus, the RBF is useful for analyzing the agency problem in delegated portfolio management. The RBF does not have a closed-form de^Lnition and must be determined numerically: to this aim, we develop a fast and accurate algorithm.
We study the gendered impact of the nationwide lockdown (March-May 2020) due to the Covid-19 pandemic on the Italian labour market. By using Labour Force Survey data on the first three quarters of 2020, we define a Triple Difference-in-Differences (DDD) strategy by exploiting the exact timing of the lockdown implementation. We found that in non essential sectors (treated group) the lockdown enlarged pre-existent gender inequalities in the extensive margin of labour force participation: the probability of job loss got 0.7 p.p. higher among female workers compared to their male counterparts, and this difference was mainly detected during the reopening period rather than in the strict lockdown phase. The probability to benefit from the wage guarantee fund (CIG) was also higher for female compared to male treated workers (3.6 p.p.), both during the lockdown and in the reopening phase. This is a great change with respect to the past, when men had always been more likely to benefit from this measure due to the fact that CIG application was traditionally restricted to male-dominated sectors of
employment. On the other hand, no significant gender differences emerged among the treated group either on the intensive margin, in terms of working hours, or in terms of remote working, at least in the medium-term.
JEL Codes: C21, D04, J16, J21
Keywords: Covid-19, lockdown, labour market, gender gap, difference-indifferences
Title: NON-MONETARY MOTIVATIONS OF AGROENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES ADOPTION. A CAUSAL FOREST APPROACH.
Authors: Roberto Esposti
This paper investigates the non-monetary motivations of farmers’ adoption of agro-environmental policies. Unlike the monetary (income) motivations, non-monetary drivers can not be directly observed but can be identified from observational data within appropriate quasiexperimental designs. A theoretical justification of farmers’ choices is firstly formulated and a consequent natural experiment setting is derived. This latter admits heterogeneous, i.e. Individual, Treatment Effects (ITE) that, in turn, can be interpreted in terms of more targeted and tailored policy expenditure. A Causal Forest (CF) approach is adopted to estimate these ITEs for both the treated and not treated units. The approach is applied to two balanced panel samples of Italian FADN farms observed over the 2008-2018 period. Results show how heterogeneous the farmers’ response and the associated non-monetary motivations can be, thus pointing to space for a more efficient policy design.